As voters decide tomorrow on an array of ballot questions,
Beacon Hill leaders are quietly dreading the outcome should a particularly volatile mix of initiatives pass.
If voters grant themselves two tax breaks and pass universal
health-care coverage, and then the state's economy slows, legislative leaders fear they will be left grappling with
soaring costs, a depletion in revenue, and an electorate unwilling to compromise on their mandates.
Fully aware of the potential political backlash, members of
the House and Senate say they don't want to tinker with tomorrow's outcome. But some warn they may have no choice,
especially if they are supposed to do their jobs responsibly.
"How we might deal with it is anybody's guess," said the
House Ways and Means chairman, Paul R. Haley (D-Weymouth). "What people need to appreciate is if we have a significant
downturn and we put in motion all this additional spending, we are not going to be able to
borrow our way out of it, because we are already leveraged to the hilt. ... It will be up to the
Legislature ... that's why we're there everyday."
The ballot questions legislators most fear: Question 4, a
$1.2 billion tax cut that would gradually lower the income tax rate to 5 percent; Question 6, which would provide $700 million
in tax credits for tolls and auto excise taxes; and Question 5, which would push the Legislature to
devise a universal health-care system and some believe could cost $1 billion a
year.
"If, at the same time, voters say we're going to reduce
revenue by $2 billion by passing 4 and 6 and we want to increase spending by over $1 billion, which is the number I've
heard that Question 5 will cost, it's a mixed message," said Senate President Thomas F. Birmingham. "It's
like the scene in 'The Wizard of Oz' when one of the characters points in
opposite directions and says, just 'follow the yellow-brick road."'
Even if only one of the tax cuts wins passage, the revenue
could set off a power grab in the Legislature, with many constituencies scrambling for a smaller share of state
spending. As it is, even when the state is flush with cash, the House and Senate can barely agree on a budget.
Las year, legislators were four months into the new fiscal year before
finalizing a spending plan.
And, if Question 5 passes, the Legislature will not only be
required to craft a health care plan that provides coverage for all the state's residents, but forced to do so relatively
quickly -- by July 2002.
Lou DiNatale, polling director at the University of Massachusetts at Boston, said the
Legislature has the option of gutting the ballot questions, especially if they're approved by
slim margins. But they would do so at their own peril, he said.
"All eyes are on the Legislature in a period of time when no
one pays attention to what the Legislature does on a daily basis," DiNatale said.
When it comes to respecting the will of the people, the
Legislature has a mixed record.
For the past two years, lawmakers have bickered and stalled
over how to implement the Clean Elections measure voters overwhelmingly approved in 1998. Lawmakers succeeded in
delaying the effective date until next March.
In 1992 voters passed a ballot question that imposed a
25-cent tax on cigarettes to fund antismoking programs, but advocates have had to fight off efforts by lawmakers to divert
the money for other purposes.
But in 1994, a statewide ballot question effectively ended
rent control in Boston, Brookline, and Cambridge. Although some lawmakers tried to reinstate it, the Legislature decided to
avoid angering the electorate and let the decision stand.
And in 1980, when voters overwhelmingly approved Proposition
2½, limiting property tax increases, lawmakers predicted that a fiscal crisis would follow, but they begrudgingly
deferred to the measure's margin of victory.
Barbara Anderson, a key player behind Proposition 2½ as
well as this year's Question 4, says the Legislature often acts like Chicken Little when facing tax-cutting ballot initiatives,
and voters should ignore the frightening messages.
"In 1980, if I recall ... civilization was about to end. The
sky was falling. Water was going to cease to flow from the spigots in Cambridge," Anderson said. "They told seniors
there'd be no more Meals on Wheels. ... No matter what you're doing on taxes, they don't like it and they'll
use the same scare tactics, so you might as well do what you want to."
Although Anderson also opposes Question 5, the health-care
initiative, she said the Legislature has only itself to blame for the measure's appearance on the ballot. Lawmakers should
have found a way to comprehensively address the health care issue, before doctors and nurses
turned to an initiative petition to get action, she said.
In fact, it was not until after the filing deadline last
July, when Question 5 won a spot on the ballot, that the House and Senate finally approved a patients' bill of rights.
Interest groups say they will make sure the Legislature
abides by the people's wishes.
Andre Guillemin, political director of the Yes on 5 Campaign, said that if the initiative is
approved, a panel of health care specialists would craft legislation for universal
coverage, and then deliver the bill "on a silver platter" to the House and Senate. If lawmakers repeatedly
defeat the panel's plan, Guillemin said they would face the wrath of voters.
"We're going to be there every step of the way," he said,
"holding the Legislature's feet to the fire."