Gov. Paul Cellucci's ballot referendum to cut state income
taxes, rocked by a TV ad assault, has suffered a steep drop in public support and is in danger of losing, a new Boston Herald
poll shows.
The Herald poll also shows that several other referendum
questions -- including health care reform, a toll tax credit and a ban on greyhound racing -- appear to be in trouble.
The tax cut initiative, once thought to be a lock for
passage, still leads by a seemingly solid 48-30 percent margin, according to the poll of 400 Massachusetts likely voters.
But backing for Question 4 has plummeted by nearly 25 points
in the last few weeks, as opponents have launched a well-financed TV ad offensive against it. In late August, 72
percent of voters backed it while just 13 percent were opposed. "It's a significant drop in support," said
Herald pollster R. Kelly Myers, director of RKM Research and Communications. "This
one's getting interesting."
Another referendum that previously enjoyed strong support
among voters has also taken a dive over the last few weeks, according to the poll.
Question 5, which would overhaul the health care system,
leads by a 46-22 point margin, but two months ago it was supported by more than seven in 10 voters, according to the
Herald poll.
Opponents of the health care question, financed by powerful
HMOs and hospitals, are spending more than $4 million on TV ads in an effort to sink the initiative.
Question 6, which would give tax credits to Turnpike toll
payers, is drawing just 36 percent support, with 36 percent opposed. More than a quarter of voters remain undecided on that
question.
A ballot referendum to ban greyhound racing, Question 3, is
losing by a 46-33 percent margin. Myers said it appears the question is unlikely to survive a strong TV ad assault financed
by opponents, mostly race track owners.
"This one probably will not pass," he said.
Question 8, which would fund drug treatment programs for
offenders, leads by a 41-19 point margin. But nearly four in 10 voters are undecided, and Myers said it's difficult to predict
whether the question will pass.
Cellucci, Attorney General Tom Reilly and all of the state's
district attorneys are strongly opposed to the measure.
The poll also shows that voters are evenly split on Question
2, which would ban voting by state prisoners.
The referendum question that appears most likely to pass is
Question 7, which establishes a state income tax deduction for charitable contributions. That measure leads by a 57-23 point
margin.
"I wouldn't say any of these (questions) are a foregone
conclusion yet," Myers said.
The Herald poll, conducted Tuesday and Wednesday, has a
margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
The loss in support for Cellucci's tax cut, which would
lower the rate from the current 5.85 percent to 5 percent, may be the biggest surprise of the election season in
Massachusetts.
With little attention paid to the presidential and U.S.
Senate races -- which appear to be blowouts -- the tax cut drive has drawn the most attention.
Cellucci has put his clout on the line for measure, helping
raise money for the question and engaging in a series of debates with his Democratic rivals.
But Cellucci's strong support for the referendum may also be
boosting the opposition.
The poll shows that voters are now split along partisan
lines, with Democrats opposing it by a 44-32 percent margin and Republicans backing it by a 78-8 percent margin.
Democrats outnumber Republicans by a three-to-one margin in
the state, putting the question at an automatic disadvantage. Opponents are already running ads denouncing the referendum
as a "Cellucci-Swift" tax cut - an effort to tap into partisan sentiment against the GOP
governor.
Myers said the outcome is likely to be decided by independents, who now back the tax cut by
a 2-1 margin.
State GOP executive director John Brockelman said last night
he isn't alarmed at the drop in backing for the tax cut and attributed it to the well-financed campaign against it.
Opponents are expected to outspend Cellucci by about a 2-1 margin on TV.
"We are not surprised the race is tightening," he said.
Myers said that referendum questions are historically
unpredictable and subject to late voter swings. But generally "no" votes tend to increase closer to election day, Myers said.
Any time a referendum question drops below 50 percent
support it signals trouble, according to the pollster.
In the presidential race, the poll shows that Democrat Al
Gore leads Republican Bush by52-28 point margin in Massachusetts. Green Party candidate Ralph Nader had 5 percent.
Gore has dropped eight points since August but is still in a commanding position.
Sen. Edward M. Kennedy also continues to steamroll his
opponents, according to the poll. The Democratic incumbent is leading Republican Jack E. Robinson by a 60-11 point margin,
while Libertarian Carla Howell has nine percent support. Myers said the poll indicates Howell may
eventually overtake Robinson, who is viewed negatively by 36 percent of voters.