CLT
UPDATE
Tuesday, March 7, 2006
Pollster exposed, as CLT did in 2003
"I can do anything I want in my
private time. I can do all this stuff, OK?"
Pollster Lou DiNatale
Louis C. DiNatale, for a decade the
producer of public opinion polls at the University of Massachusetts, has
quietly moonlighted as a paid political consultant for several years,
and informally advised three current gubernatorial candidates, arranging
a poll by his top aide for one of them....
"It's on its face a
conflict of interest if you're doing private polling for a candidate
where you're also doing public polling on the race," said Cliff Zukin,
president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. Zukin,
a Rutgers University professor, is the former director of The (Newark)
Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers Poll....
The oft-quoted DiNatale
doubles as UMass-Lowell's director of the Center for Economic and Civic
Opinion and its executive director of public affairs. He moved to the
Lowell campus in July 2004, after spending 20 years at UMass-Boston,
where he split his time doing polling, research, and teaching at the
McCormack Institute and working in the UMass president's office. The
results of his UMass poll, launched in 1996, have frequently been
published in the Globe.
DiNatale's sideline is particularly
thorny, because he works at a public university, currently at a salary
of $154,500. UMass relies on tax dollars appropriated by politicians he
advises.
"It's hairy; there's no question about it," DiNatale
said in an interview. "You're working at a public university, and when
you poll ... on basically your bosses, OK, you get [expletive]." ...
The Mihos relationship, DiNatale acknowledged, left him "vulnerable
to appearance arguments, but there is nothing inherently wrong with it,
and this issue is being driven by Republicans who are convinced that ...
because I'm a Democrat, I advised Christy Mihos to run as an
independent."
The Boston Globe
Tuesday, March 7,
2006
UMass pollster worked on side
DiNatale
advised politicians, groups
-- A CLT BLAST FROM THE
PAST --
The latest -- an honest, impartial and
professional -- poll just released today shows that only a third back
tax hikes over spending increases, that 52 percent want the state to cut
spending not raise taxes.
It was just the past Thursday that the
Boston Globe reported:
"A strong plurality of 401
Massachusetts voters surveyed would prefer that Beacon Hill leaders
raise taxes rather than cut government services to deal with the
state's budget deficit, a new University of Massachusetts poll shows.
"In the survey taken late last week, 47 percent of those polled
said they want Governor Mitt Romney and the Legislature to use taxes
to close the spending gap, while 29 percent want them to cut programs.
"'The anti-tax sentiment seems to be ebbing,' said Lou DiNatale,
director of the poll."
Hardly, Lou, hardly ... despite your
fondest wishes and best efforts.
"Voters continue to want
politicians to impose the discipline to control spending," Herald
pollster R. Kelly Myers countered.
I think we all have recognized
by now that any poll done by taxpayer-funded UMass concerning tax hikes
is hardly impartial, objective or credible, but instead just a campaign
tool of the tax-and-spenders that will always be hyped by the Boston
Globe.
Actually, the only "poll" of taxpayers that counts was our
voluntary tax check-off on income tax returns filed earlier this year,
and we know taxpayers voted "no new taxes" in massive, overwhelming
numbers with less than one-twentieth of one percent putting their money
where their tax-us-more mouths are.
99.95 percent of filers kept
their income tax rollback.
That's not an opinion poll subject to
anyone's manipulation. That's reality .... signed under the pains and
penalties of perjury.
CLT UPDATE - Jun. 9, 2003
New poll:
"Only a third of voters favor tax increase"
Chip Ford's
CLT Commentary
Chip Ford's CLT Commentary
"It's hairy; there's no question about it," DiNatale
said in an interview. "You're working at a public university, and when
you poll ... on basically your bosses, OK, you get [expletive]."
So reported The Boston Globe's Brian Mooney today.
I said it almost three years ago, but who was
listening but you? I wrote: "I think we all have recognized
by now that any poll done by taxpayer-funded UMass concerning tax hikes
is hardly impartial, objective or credible, but instead just a campaign
tool of the tax-and-spenders that will always be hyped by the Boston
Globe."
On June 5, 2003, Lou DiNatale's published poll
indicated, according to the Boston Globe, "A strong plurality of 401
Massachusetts voters surveyed would prefer that Beacon Hill leaders
raise taxes rather than cut government services ..."
Yet on June 9, 2003 -- only four days later
-- an independent Boston Herald poll reported "of 412 registered voters
was taken by RKM Research & Communications ... On taxes, 52 percent of
voters want pols to choose spending cuts while 32 percent say they want
programs protected by tax hikes."
In his musings on June 8th, Boston Globe columnist
Jeff Jacoby wrote: "By my count, this is the third UMass poll on
tax hikes vs. spending cuts this year ..."
So what's going on? I think we know now, as
I've always suspected. CLT was right-on, again.
Barbara, who has been on panels and television shows
with Lou DiNatale for years, was amazed by today's Boston Globe story:
"The Globe just found out that Lou is a Democrat operative?"
The Big Question is, why did The Boston Globe
reveal this now? If you read Howie Carr's book, "The
Brothers Bulger," you'll begin to better understand perhaps how our
state political system actually works. As bad as we think we know
Massachusetts politics to be, we've only seen the tip of the iceberg.
This read has been an awakening for even us!
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Chip Ford |
The Boston Globe
Tuesday, March 7, 2006
UMass pollster worked on side
DiNatale advised politicians, groups
By Brian C. Mooney, Globe Staff
Louis C. DiNatale, for a decade the producer of public opinion polls at
the University of Massachusetts, has quietly moonlighted as a paid
political consultant for several years, and informally advised three
current gubernatorial candidates, arranging a poll by his top aide for
one of them.
DiNatale's freelance work includes a private poll conducted last month
for a group engaged in an expensive lobbying effort to deregulate the
state's automobile insurance rate-setting process. In addition, two
close business associates or DiNatale himself have conducted polls,
provided other campaign services, or offered advice to the state
Senate's top Democrat, several other candidates, and two referendum
campaigns.
DiNatale disclosed the outside work to his superiors last week, after
the Globe inquired about the arrangements and the potential appearance
of a conflict of interest. Yesterday, the executive vice chancellor at
University of Massachusetts at Lowell, Frederick Sperounis, issued a
statement saying: "To eliminate even the appearance issues, Mr. DiNatale
has agreed not to accept any further private survey work."
Sperounis added, "The university does not see any legal or ethical
issues associated with Mr. DiNatale's work, but will review all the
issues raised and will take appropriate action if warranted."
In an interview last week, DiNatale insisted that there was nothing
improper about his outside work and that there is no evidence he altered
poll results.
His extracurricular activities are wide-ranging, extending to an unusual
relationship with Christy P. Mihos, now an independent candidate for
governor.
Asked about his outside work, DiNatale conceded in an interview that
last fall he persuaded Mihos, then a prospective candidate, to hire
Barry Hock, DiNatale's former business partner and currently his chief
aide at UMass-Lowell, to conduct a poll privately. DiNatale said he then
analyzed the results and made recommendations to Mihos, who recently
decided to abandon the Republican Party for an independent candidacy.
DiNatale said that he was never paid by Mihos, with whom he met several
times, and that he "got disinvolved, once he decided to become a
candidate."
But the private polling -- followed by the public, UMass-Lowell survey
in February that included Mihos -- crossed a professional line for
pollsters, a leading industry figure said.
"It's on its face a conflict of interest if you're doing private polling
for a candidate where you're also doing public polling on the race,"
said Cliff Zukin, president of the American Association for Public
Opinion Research. Zukin, a Rutgers University professor, is the former
director of The (Newark) Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers Poll.
"That's an extremely messy situation," Zukin said, asserting that
pollsters "have a public obligation ... to avoid the appearance of
impropriety."
Asked to respond, DiNatale said last week: "It's messy, but it is not
illegal or unethical.
"I can do anything I want in my private time. I can do all this stuff,
OK?"
Moreover, DiNatale asserted that he has provided at least as much unpaid
advice to the Democratic gubernatorial candidates, Attorney General
Thomas F. Reilly and Deval L. Patrick, as he has given to Mihos.
The oft-quoted DiNatale doubles as UMass-Lowell's director of the Center
for Economic and Civic Opinion and its executive director of public
affairs. He moved to the Lowell campus in July 2004, after spending 20
years at UMass-Boston, where he split his time doing polling, research,
and teaching at the McCormack Institute and working in the UMass
president's office. The results of his UMass poll, launched in 1996,
have frequently been published in the Globe.
DiNatale's sideline is particularly thorny, because he works at a public
university, currently at a salary of $154,500. UMass relies on tax
dollars appropriated by politicians he advises.
"It's hairy; there's no question about it," DiNatale said in an
interview. "You're working at a public university, and when you poll ...
on basically your bosses, OK, you get [expletive]."
DiNatale's expansive sideline had not been generally known in the
state's tightknit political community.
On Feb. 19, the Globe reported DiNatale's advisory role in a profile of
Mihos, who at the time was deciding whether to run as a GOP candidate or
as an independent. Three days earlier, the newspaper had published a
University of Massachusetts gubernatorial poll, overseen by DiNatale and
Hock, that included Mihos.
That February UMass survey, DiNatale said, generated complaints from
Reilly and from Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey, a Republican and also
a candidate for governor, and from Senate President Robert E.
Travaglini. Healey's campaign specifically criticized DiNatale's
advisory role with Mihos.
The Mihos relationship, DiNatale acknowledged, left him "vulnerable to
appearance arguments, but there is nothing inherently wrong with it, and
this issue is being driven by Republicans who are convinced that ...
because I'm a Democrat, I advised Christy Mihos to run as an
independent."
DiNatale said he gave a report last fall to Mihos and to some Mihos
advisers that concluded, based on Hock's poll, that Mihos was "not
viable" in either a Republican primary against Healey or as an
independent.
But a copy of the poll and DiNatale's analysis contradict that account.
The analysis, obtained by the Globe, gave no assessment of Mihos's
strength as an independent, rated Healey "a weak candidate with
potential problems" in a GOP primary, and recommended that Mihos spend
$200,000 on direct-mail contact to Republican voters between last
October and Jan. 1.
Mihos, who describes DiNatale as a friend, said he has never met Hock.
"My sense is I've talked to him," Mihos said. "I sent him a check when
we were billed, and that was it."
DiNatale said Hock charged Mihos "around eight grand" for the survey
conducted last Sept. 25-29, about a month after Hock joined UMass-Lowell
as associate director of the Center for Economic and Civic Opinion.
Hock and DiNatale have been friends for 30 years and, until a few years
ago, operated a polling business together, DiNatale said. Hock now
operates Hock Research out of his unit in a Needham apartment complex.
In September, DiNatale steered the Committee for a Democratic Senate,
Travaglini's political action committee, to hire Hock. "I forget what
the issue was. It might have been healthcare; it might have been
something else," DiNatale said. For the poll, the PAC paid Hock $8,000
Sept. 19, shortly after he went on the UMass-Lowell payroll at a salary
of $85,000.
Asked about the propriety of hiring a public employee to poll for
Travaglini's use, the PAC's treasurer, attorney Thomas R. Kiley, said:
"Public employees get to have second jobs" under the state's
conflict-of-interest law. "I assume they have the brains to do things
right," he said.
Hock did not return calls from the Globe, but DiNatale said his aide's
polling is done "on his private time, in his own way, totally separate
from the university in every way." DiNatale said his own moonlighting is
done on nights and weekends, using personal phones and computer
equipment.
Since 2000, Hock and his company have billed about $330,000 to
candidates, a referendum campaign, and Travaglini's PAC. Most of the
money was passed through to pay other vendors, DiNatale said, including
"five or $10,000" to himself in the 2000 Senate election of Harriette L.
Chandler, Democrat of Worcester.
DiNatale was also paid at least $11,000, through another company, for
work on a 2001 fluoride referendum campaign in Worcester.
DiNatale's name does not appear on public campaign finance records,
however; he is paid through other consulting companies, including
Winning Choices, one of several businesses owned by Paul J. Giorgio of
Worcester, operating out of a storefront on Winter Street in an
industrial section of Worcester.
Since 2002, Winning Choices has been paid $219,000 by a half-dozen
candidates and a statewide referendum committee, state campaign finance
records show. DiNatale, who lives in Lancaster, said he was paid on
occasion by Giorgio, another longtime friend, for work on local races in
the Worcester area.
DiNatale and Giorgio bought the former Atlantic Bag Co. building on
Winter Street in 2002 for $225,000 and have renovated it. SPQR, "an
Italian Caffe" owned by Giorgio and DiNatale's wife, Gail Sullivan, is
also located there.
Last month, under the name Winning Choices, DiNatale conducted a poll of
315 Western Massachusetts voters for Fairness for Good Drivers, a
coalition of insurance companies engaged in a multimillion-dollar
lobbying effort to loosen the state's rate-setting role in auto
insurance.
DiNatale also briefed Senator Andrea F. Nuciforo Jr., Senate chairman of
the Joint Committee on Financial Services, on the poll results.
"Yes, I brought it to Nuciforo," DiNatale said. "They asked me because
they knew I was an honest broker."
Return to top
A strong plurality of 401 Massachusetts voters
surveyed would prefer that Beacon Hill leaders raise taxes rather than
cut government services to deal with the state's budget deficit, a new
University of Massachusetts poll shows....
"The anti-tax sentiment seems to be ebbing," said Lou DiNatale, director
of the poll.
The poll numbers come as lawmakers put the final touches on their nearly
$23 billion budget for next year. Although the spending plan isn't
expected to include new taxes, some Democratic lawmakers are discussing
whether the Legislature should take up a tax increase package this fall.
The lawmakers suggest that by then, the public may be feeling the pain
of spending cuts, including projected layoffs of police, firefighters,
and teachers, and be more accepting of revenue increases.
The Boston Globe
Jun. 5, 2003
Poll: More favor tax hikes in lieu of cuts in services
Another day, another University of Massachusetts poll
purporting to show that Bay State voters would rather plug the
Commonwealth's fiscal hole with higher taxes than with lower spending.
By my count, this is the third UMass poll on tax hikes vs. spending cuts
this year, and according to Thursday's story in the Globe, 47 percent of
respondents now want their taxes to go up while only 29 percent want the
state budget to go down.
I'd be more inclined to trust these numbers if they came from a poll
sponsored by an institution that didn't have a vested interest in higher
government spending. Considering that 46 percent of Bay State voters
wanted to eliminate the state income tax entirely in November, I'm
skeptical that a similar percentage is now ready for heavier taxes.
According to a report just issued by the scrupulously nonpartisan
Massachusetts Institute for a New Commonwealth, state residents list
"the amount of taxes an average family has to pay" as one of the five
worst things about life in this state. Those findings are borne out by
the Tax Foundation, which reports that Massachusetts has the
fifth-highest per-capita tax burden in the country. "Taxachusetts" isn't
just a nickname. It's reality.
The Boston Globe
Jun. 8, 2003
[Excerpt]
Musings, random and otherwise
By Jeff Jacoby
The Herald poll of 412 registered voters was taken by
RKM Research & Communications June 4-5. It has a margin of error of plus
or minus 4.8 percent....
The poll shows Romney has succeeded in convincing voters to trust him,
not the Legislature, on reform, taxes and spending....
Only a third of voters back tax increases to protect government
programs....
On taxes, 52 percent of voters want pols to choose spending cuts while
32 percent say they want programs protected by tax hikes. Democrats
aren't even overwhelmingly supporting tax hikes, with a slight plurality
picking cuts.
"Voters continue to want politicians to impose the discipline to control
spending," Myers said.
Among the 32 percent who want their taxes raised, 40 percent say they
want the new money spent on health care while 32 percent prefer the
money be spent on schools. A paltry 3 percent said general local aid to
communities should go up if taxes are raised.
"Despite a lot of conversation about cuts in local aid, that's not where
they think the state ought to be restoring funding," Myers said.
The Boston Herald
Jun. 9, 2003
Mitt's blind spot:
Trust issue dogs popular gov
When Governor Mitt Romney makes his expected deep
cuts to state spending, he will have the public heavily on his side,
according to a University of Massachusetts poll taken last month. The
survey of 400 voters shows a strong majority - 68 percent - disapprove
of the way state government spends money, while only 28 percent approve.
Democrats who suggest raising taxes to solve the fiscal crisis will be
going up against public sentiment. The poll shows 59 percent of voters
prefer spending cuts to close the deficit while only 26 percent favor
raising taxes.
"I am stunned," said UMass pollster Lou DiNatale, referring to the
strong antitax mood among the Massachusetts voters. Normally, 40 percent
of the electorate in the state is solidly liberal and supportive of
government spending. DiNatale thinks the antitax mood is tied to the bad
economic conditions.
The Boston Globe
Jan. 19, 2003
Political Intelligence [Excerpt]
Cuts will please public, poll indicates
But that result sharply contrasted with surveys taken
after the ruling and Romney's high-profile opposition to it. A Globe/WBZ-TV
survey of 400 residents (as compared to voters) indicated that only 45
percent viewed him favorably, and 39 percent unfavorably.
Lou DiNatale, the UMass poll director, said the differences in Romney's
standing in the two polls could be attributed to, among several factors
...
By 48 to 24 percent, respondents favored raising taxes over cutting more
services to deal with the state's $2 billion budget deficit. Voters
seemed more comfortable with the Democratic lawmakers making the final
decision on taxes and service cuts. Some 54 percent said they trust the
Legislature to make the right decision about taxes and cuts; only 35
percent trusted Romney.
The Boston Globe
Nov. 27, 2003
Poll suggests Mass. voters back changes
Lou DiNatale, polling director at the University of
Massachusetts at Boston, said the Legislature has the option of gutting
the ballot questions, especially if they're approved by slim margins.
But they would do so at their own peril, he said.
"All eyes are on the Legislature in a period of time when no one pays
attention to what the Legislature does on a daily basis," DiNatale said.
The Boston Globe
Nov. 6, 2000
Vote has leaders on edge
Mass. lawmakers warn of fiscal risk
The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks have altered the
political landscape surrounding taxes and government spending, said Lou
DiNatale, a political analyst at the University of Massachusetts at
Boston. Democrats will be able to make a plausible case that more money
is needed to provide crucial government spending in areas like public
safety and education, he said.
"For the Democrats, if they present this properly, it may not be a bad
thing," DiNatale said.
The Boston Globe
Oct. 25, 2001
As
revenues drop, Democrats eyeing a delay in tax cut
Lou DiNatale, a political analyst at the University
of Massachusetts' McCormack Institute, said Swift could be trying to win
the issue in two ways. She could gain political points by trying to
block an attempt to freeze the tax cut, but then have the overwhelmingly
Democratic Legislature override her veto and avoid some of the local aid
cuts.
"There are Republicans who think there is never a good time to rescind a
tax cut, and you'll always pay a political price for it," he said.
Some voters are already angry at the Legislature for failing to fund the
voter-approved Clean Elections Law and for dragging out budget talks
more than four months into the new fiscal year.
But the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, and an economy stalling into a
recession, may have changed the priorities of many taxpayers who could
now be prepared to sacrifice, he said.
"The Democrats (like Birmingham) are betting the public are ready for
realistic talk about economic needs and state-funded priorities,"
DiNatale said.
"I would argue that since 9-11, Clean Elections is no longer an issue,
and a tax cut and whether or not the Legislature returns it is not an
issue," DiNatale said. "The issues right now are the physical security
of the state, the economic conditions of the state, and the state's
economy."
The MetroWest Daily News
Nov. 9, 2001
Tax cut repeal divides state's top Democrats
All Lou DiNatale quotes on the CLT website
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